Science-based strategies for the perfect selling time
When should you sell your car?
The optimal time depends on your strategy:
Sell after: 3-5 years or at 50,000-75,000 km
You avoid the steepest depreciation and still get good prices
Sell after: 7-10 years or at 100,000-150,000 km
You achieve the lowest cost per kilometer
Sell after: 10+ years or 150,000+ km
You drive until just before major repairs are needed
⚠️ Important Note
The 100,000 km threshold is the biggest psychological price drop. Sell BEFORE or AFTER this threshold, but never exactly at 100,000 km.
Swiss context: Most Swiss sell after 8 years – but that's not necessarily optimal for your wallet.
You bought your car 3 years ago for CHF 35,000. You think you were smart – regular maintenance, careful driving, no accidents. Now that you want to sell, you expect at least CHF 22,000, right?
The reality: Your car is worth CHF 18,000.
That means: You've paid CHF 472 per month just for depreciation. That's CHF 5,666 per year – simply gone. No fuel, no insurance, no repairs. Just pure depreciation.
Most Swiss car owners sell their vehicle at the wrong time. Either:
This guide is based on Swiss TCS data, Comparis market analyses, and real sales figures from over 4.5 million vehicles.
You'll learn the science-based selling strategies, psychological thresholds, and your personal sweet spot.
You will learn:
The goal: Not the highest sale price, but the lowest cost per kilometer driven.
Before we talk about the optimal time, you need to understand how and why your car loses value.
| Year | Value | Loss (Year) | Total Loss | % of Original |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (Purchase) | CHF 40'000 | - | - | 100% |
| 1 | CHF 30'000 | CHF 10'000 | CHF 10'000 | 75% |
| 2 | CHF 24'000 | CHF 6'000 | CHF 16'000 | 60% |
| 3 | CHF 20'000 | CHF 4'000 | CHF 20'000 | 50% |
| 4 | CHF 17'000 | CHF 3'000 | CHF 23'000 | 42.5% |
| 5 | CHF 15'000 | CHF 2'000 | CHF 25'000 | 37.5% |
| 7 | CHF 12'000 | CHF 1'500/year | CHF 28'000 | 30% |
| 10 | CHF 8'000 | CHF 1'333/year | CHF 32'000 | 20% |
| 15 | CHF 4'000 | CHF 800/year | CHF 36'000 | 10% |
Source: TCS Vehicle Cost Calculation 2025, Allianz Residual Value Guidelines
Loss: 50% of value in 3 years
This is the most brutal phase. Your brand new car loses 25% of its value in the first 12 months – even if you only drive 5,000 km.
Why?
Swiss particularity: According to TCS data 2025, an average new vehicle (CHF 44,400) already costs CHF 923 per month just in depreciation in the first year.
Loss: Additional 20-25% over 4 years
The curve flattens. You're now "only" losing CHF 2,000-3,000 per year instead of CHF 6,000-10,000.
Why this matters:
Loss: Only CHF 500-1,500 per year
From about 8-10 years, the curve flattens almost completely. A 10-year-old car barely loses any more value.
The Usage Paradox:
If you buy a car for CHF 8,000 and drive it for 3 years, you might only lose CHF 2,000 in depreciation. That's CHF 55 per month!
According to Federal Statistical Office (BFS):
This means: Most Swiss car owners keep their vehicles longer than the first depreciation shock, but shorter than total cost minimization.
See how different brands lose value over the years
Compare brands:
Selling after 3-5 years = highest resale value with moderate use
Residual value at 5Y: 42%
Selling after 7-10 years = best balance between value and usage
Residual value at 8Y: 33%
Selling after 10+ years = lowest cost per kilometer driven
Residual value at 10Y: 28%
Source: TCS Vehicle Costs 2025, Allianz Residual Value Guidelines, Comparis Market Data
There's no "one right answer" – but there are three science-based strategies that work depending on your priorities.
Sell after: 3-5 years | 50,000-75,000 km
Who is this for?
Why does this work?
The Math (Example: VW Golf CHF 35,000 new)
Purchase: CHF 35,000 (2020, 0 km)
Sale: CHF 16,000 (2025, 70,000 km)
Depreciation: CHF 19,000
Usage period: 5 years, 70,000 km
Maintenance: CHF 3,500
Insurance: CHF 7,500 (CHF 1,500/year)
Taxes: CHF 1,500
Total costs: CHF 31,500
Cost per km: CHF 0.45/km
Cost per month: CHF 525
Sell after: 7-10 years | 100,000-150,000 km
Who is this for?
The Math (Example: VW Golf, but kept longer)
Purchase: CHF 35,000 (2017, 0 km)
Sale: CHF 8,500 (2025, 130,000 km)
Depreciation: CHF 26,500
Usage period: 8 years, 130,000 km
Maintenance: CHF 7,500 (incl. timing belt, brakes)
Insurance: CHF 12,000
Taxes: CHF 2,400
Total costs: CHF 48,400
Cost per km: CHF 0.37/km ✅ 18% cheaper!
Cost per month: CHF 504
The Paradox: You pay almost the same per month, but your cost per kilometer is 18% lower because you drive more kilometers.
Sell after: 10+ years | 150,000+ km | Or when repair > 50% vehicle value
Who is this for?
The Math (Example: Toyota Corolla CHF 32,000 new, robust)
Purchase: CHF 32,000 (2013, 0 km)
Sale: CHF 2,500 (2025, 220,000 km)
Depreciation: CHF 29,500
Usage period: 12 years, 220,000 km
Maintenance: CHF 12,000
Insurance: CHF 18,000
Taxes: CHF 3,600
Repairs: CHF 4,500
Total costs: CHF 67,600
Cost per km: CHF 0.31/km ✅ 31% cheaper than Strategy 1!
Cost per month: CHF 469
| Criterion | Value Maximizer | Usage Maximizer | Cost Minimizer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sell after | 3-5 years | 7-10 years | 10+ years |
| Kilometers | 50-75k km | 100-150k km | 150k+ km |
| Cost/km | CHF 0.40-0.50 | CHF 0.30-0.40 | CHF 0.25-0.35 |
| Residual value | 35-45% | 15-25% | 5-10% |
| Image | Newer car | Medium | Irrelevant |
| Risk | Low | Medium | High |
| Maintenance | CHF 3-5k | CHF 6-8k | CHF 10-15k |
Compare the actual cost per kilometer driven
Selling after 3-5 years, 50-75k km
Selling after 7-10 years, 100-150k km
19% cheaper than Strategy 1
Selling after 10+ years, 150k+ km
34% cheaper than Strategy 1
The longer you keep your car, the lower the cost per kilometer. The cost minimizer saves up to 31% compared to the value maximizer.
Monthly costs remain similar (CHF 469-525), but the cost per kilometer driven differs massively. Drive more = cheaper per km!
Total cost = (Purchase price - Sale price) + Maintenance + Insurance + Taxes
Cost per km = Total cost ÷ Kilometers driven
Cost minimizer example: (CHF 35’000 - CHF 3’150) + CHF 12’000 + CHF 18’000+ CHF 3’600 = CHF 65’450 ÷ 220’000 km = CHF 0.30/km
Based on: TCS Vehicle Costs 2025, average Swiss insurance premiums, typical maintenance costs by vehicle age
Mileage is not linearly connected to value. There are psychological thresholds where the price suddenly and dramatically drops.
The shocking reality
A car with 95,000 km sells for an average of CHF 15,500.
The same car with 105,000 km sells for CHF 12,200.
That's a CHF 3,300 difference – for 10,000 kilometers!
Why? Pure psychology. Buyers think:
The truth: Mechanically it makes almost no difference. A well-maintained car with 105,000 km is just as reliable as one with 95,000 km.
| Mileage | Perception | Price Effect | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30,000 km | "Almost new" | +10-15% premium | Sell here for max price |
| 50,000 km | First threshold | -5% drop | Sell at 48k or 55k |
| 100,000 km | MAIN THRESHOLD | -15-25% drop | Never sell exactly here |
| 150,000 km | Very high | -30% vs <100k | Small buyer group |
Psychological barriers have real price impacts
✓ You are still under the critical 100'000 km threshold
Your brand (affects 100k effect):
The biggest psychological price drop. For VW/Skoda:
Average
Caution! You are only 15’000 km away from the cliff.
⚠️ Act now:
Sell immediately before you reach 100'000 km. Every additional kilometer costs you disproportionate value.
| Mileage | Perception | Price Effect | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30'000 km | Almost new | +10-15% | Sell for max price |
| 30-50'000 km | Low | +5-8% | Good selling window |
| 50-80'000 km | Normal | Baseline | Average |
| 80-100'000 km | Soon high | -5% | Sell BEFORE 100k! |
| 100'000 km ⚠️ | CLIFF | -18% | NEVER sell exactly here |
| 100-130'000 km | High mileage | -20% | Continue until 150k |
| 150'000 km | Very high | -30-40% | Cost minimizer strategy |
Source: Carwow UK data analysis (1.2M vehicles), autoweg.ch Swiss market data 2024
Source: Carwow UK data analysis, autoweg.ch Swiss market data 2024
The optimal time depends on your strategy. For the best resale value: 3-5 years or 50,000-75,000 km. For the lowest total cost per kilometer: 7-10 years or 100,000-150,000 km. Never sell exactly at 100,000 km – that's the biggest psychological price threshold.
BEFORE 100,000 km (ideally at 85,000-95,000 km) if you want to achieve maximum price. AFTER 100,000 km (at 120,000+ km) if you want to drive more kilometers. NEVER sell between 98,000-102,000 km – that's the worst zone for depreciation.
No, after 5 years depreciation slows considerably. The first 3 years are the worst (50% loss), then only about 10-12% per year. After 10 years, depreciation is minimal.
Toyota, Lexus, and Porsche (SUVs) retain the most value. After 5 years they still have 40-48% of their original value. Alfa Romeo, Fiat, and Jaguar depreciate fastest (only 28-30% residual value after 5 years).
Yes, if you want to minimize cost per kilometer. A 12-year-old car can have costs of only CHF 0.25-0.35/km, compared to CHF 0.45/km for a 5-year-old car. But only with reliable brands like Toyota, Honda, or Volvo.
At the latest after 5 years or 80,000 km. Premium brands depreciate faster and have significantly higher maintenance costs from 100,000 km. The 100,000 km effect is particularly strong for German premium brands (-20-28%).
Yes! March-May and September-October are the best months (10-15% higher prices). December-January are the worst months. The difference can be CHF 1,500-3,000.
Sell after a major service if it was less than 3 months ago. This increases buyer confidence and justifies a higher price. A fresh MFK (over 12 months valid) is particularly valuable.
Depends on your priority: 50,000 km/3 years: Higher sale price, but higher cost per km (CHF 0.45/km). 150,000 km/10 years: Lower price, but much cheaper cost per km (CHF 0.30/km). For maximum economy: keep longer.
Yes, currently. EV models from 2020-2022 lose about 50% in 3 years (compared to 40-45% for combustion engines). But: Tesla holds value better than other EVs, and newer models (2023+) show better residual values.
Compare the buyback price with market value. If market value is CHF 3,000+ higher than buyback price, buy and sell immediately. Details in our Leasing Arbitrage Guide.
Not always. Example: An 8-year-old car with only 40,000 km can raise concerns ("Just sat around"). Optimal: Slightly below average (10,000-12,000 km/year).
Right before a major psychological threshold (just before 50,000 or 100,000 km), in winter (December-February), right after an expensive service (wait 1-2 months), or when the used car market is currently weak.
Yes! Sell before a facelift of your model. As soon as a new version appears, older versions drop 5-10% in value.
Formula: (Purchase price - estimated sale price + maintenance) / kilometers driven = cost per km. Calculate this for different time points (now, +1 year, +2 years) and compare. The point with the lowest cost/km is optimal.
Ready to sell at the optimal time?
